Hold'em principles

PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE IS KEY.


Patience, patience, patience!

It's the number one mistake that causes most poker players
to lose... and it's one of the "secrets" to Buffett's 22%
annual returns.

Warren Buffett does not make an investment unless he is
absolutely 100% confident that it will make him money.

That means he PASSES UP a lot of great investment
opportunities.

Warren Buffett has said "no" to stocks that ended up
increasing by 10,000%!

But more importantly... he's passed up all those other
stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED later.

The problem is, us human beings are addicted to ACTION and
MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT. We don't want to just sit around
and WAIT.

But that's EXACTLY what Buffett does...

He waits.

And waits.

And waits.

He KNOWS that sooner or later, a GREAT opportunity will come
up... and then he'll jump on it.

It's the same way with poker.

You've GOT to be patient. We all want to "get in there" and
make strong bets... bluff out opponents... and take down
lots of pots. We want ACTION.

BUT THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DO IT.

You've got to sit back... be patient... and WAIT.

Wait for good cards.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bust the manic at the table.

Wait for the PERFECT time to steal the blinds.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bluff out an opponent.

Wait for the PERFECT time to go all-in.

And then when you DO make a move...


PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN A "LOW TURNOVER" PORTFOLIO OF JUST A
FEW STOCKS.


Buffett insists on keeping 10-20% turnover with his
portfolio. This means he generally holds onto a stock for
5-10 years... AT LEAST.

This is obviously OPPOSITE of how most investors do it. Most
investors are checking the tickers every HOUR-- watching for
the slightest indication of movement or news.

More importantly... Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT
A TIME.

Now THIS is crucial, because it goes against everything
you've ever learned.

Growing up, you probably heard this advice a lot:

"Never put all your eggs in one basket."

Right?

Well, Warren Buffett does the OPPOSITE.

He puts all his eggs in one basket... but... he chooses that
basket VERY CAREFULLY!

You see, Buffett believes that if you've done your homework
and you're confident in your decision, there's NO NEED to
"diversify".

In fact, he believes this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich
in the stock market. Because if you buy LOTS of stocks, some
are doomed to go down... and that will hurt your gains.

Now think how this relates to poker.

In poker, most players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try
to get the best odds for each one... maybe 55%, 60%, and the
OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.

What PROFESSIONAL poker players do is only play those
OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.

BUT, they risk more chips when they do it...

So instead of risking 20% of your chip stack five times...
you want to risk 90% of your chip stack ONE time. But you
choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!

For instance, let's say the "average" poker player enters
three pots where he feels the odds are in his favor.

The three pots go like this:

1.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.
2.) He risks 1000 in chips with 50% odds.
3.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.

Now... MATHEMATICALLY speaking... there are EIGHT different
ways these scenarios can go. They are as follows (a win is
designated with "W" and a loss with "L"):

1.) W-W-W
2.) W-W-L
3.) W-L-W
4.) W-L-L
5.) L-W-W
6.) L-W-L
7.) L-L-W
8.) L-L-L

If he wins all three, he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.

If he wins two but loses one, he ends up with just 1000
chips in profit.

If he LOSES two but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in
losses.

And he if loses all three, he loses 3000 chips total.

Get it?

Now let me share with you the PERCENTAGES of the above
scenarios.

Watch out, this may surprise you.

If you were to play three pots as described above and risk
1000 chips for each one, and do this exercise 100 times,
here's what would happen:

18% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
42% of the time you'd win 1,000 chips total.
32% of the time you'd lose 1,000 chips total.
8% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.

Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.

OK... that's the "normal" approach.

Now let's look at the WARREN BUFFETT approach.

Let's say you entered just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips
(instead of 1000) with 70% odds in your favor.

Now watch what happens:

70% of the time you'd win 3,000 chips total.
30% of the time you'd lose 3,000 chips total.

Your "net average" would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.

That's TRIPLE the results over time!

The key is to get BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.

I better interject here that I do NOT recommend being one of
those players who just sits back, waits for the "nuts", and
then goes all-in.

Not even close.

In fact, if you've read my newsletters you know that I'm a
very aggressive player who loves to push action.

The KEY is that I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based
on feeler bets, positioning, and sensing weakness.

AND WHEN THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY
CHIPS AS I CAN!

I know that when the odds are heavily in my favor, it's time
to put my eggs in one basket and go for it...


PRINCIPLE 3: THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR
"EFFICIENT".


There's a popular stock market concept called, "Efficient
Market Theory" (EMT).

Most of the world's leading business schools teach this
widely-accepted concept.

However...

Warren Buffett says that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!

He's actually gone on record saying that part of him LOVES
the fact that business schools teach this theory: It makes
things easier on him because his competition doesn't know
what they're doing!

Now... I'm not going to argue whether the theory is right or
wrong. It doesn't matter for our discussion here.

What I find intriguing is what Buffett believes IS true
about the stock market...

You see, the EMT basically says that the stock market is
"efficient" in its pricing... and that most buy/sell
behavior is "rational".

Buffett disagrees. He is CONSTANTLY scouting for
opportunities where he thinks the market is acting in an
IRRATIONAL manner... and then he jumps on the chance to buy
an under-priced stock.

In other words, a core part of his investment philosophy is
that the stock market is NOT efficient... and that there's
always room to grow your "bankroll" when others act
irrationally.

It's the same with poker.

When you're playing Texas Holdem, you want to spot the
"sucker" at the table... the guy who is making IRRATIONAL
decisions.

This doesn't only apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have
"irrational" habits, tells, and "tilt" behavior.

Your OPPONENTS will open up millions of "profit
opportunities" for you... if you just watch closely.

And that brings us to the next principle:


PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE
PRICE OF THE STOCK.


This one has almost a direct translation to poker:

FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS, NOT THE CARDS.

You're not playing poker against the house... you're playing
against your opponents.

With the stock market, everyone is always looking at the
PRICE of a stock to determine if it's worth buying or
selling.

Buffett actually doesn't even look at the price until LAST.
What he looks at is the VALUE OF THE BUSINESS.

He only invests in top-notch businesses that meet specific
conditions. He wants a business with strong growth prospects
LONG TERM, good management, and stable numbers.

Once he finds a business that meets these criteria, THEN he
looks at the price.

When the cards come out, what's the first thing you're
thinking about? What are you looking at?

You should be thinking about your OPPONENTS... the
POSITIONING at the table... the BETTING HABITS you've picked
up in the last few hands... and your opponents' FACES as
they look at their cards.

THEN when the action comes to you and it's YOUR TURN, you
should peek to see what you're holding.

Opponents first, cards second.


PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.


Warren Buffett is actually a very "conservative" investor,
as are most poker professionals. He'll only buy stocks that
he feels are practically "guaranteed" to go up.

You should demand a "margin of safety" on every hand you
play. This is actually much easier than it sounds.

Some of your tactics should include:

* Avoiding heads-up situations with players who have more
chips, and instead favoring those with fewer chips. (That
way if you go all-in and lose, you can still be in the
game.)

* Buying pots and bluffing when you have good positioning.
(That way you can get a read on your opponent and escape if
things go bad.)

* Only "chasing" draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in
your favor. (That way you end up way ahead over time.)

* And so on.


*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***


Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT lesson I've learned from Warren
Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing the "unpopular" thing.

His career PROVES that "going against the grain" is often
the BEST choice.

He doesn't live by what others do... he operates on GUIDING
PRINCIPLES that "win" over time.

Whether it's ways to leverage table positioning, tactics for
defeating common opponent styles, techniques for "stealing
the button", or figuring out the right times to bluff...

...You've got to first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then
you need the GUTS to stick to them.

So where do you learn these principles?

The best place to start is by joining my free Poker Tips
email newsletter. It's jam-packed with Texas Holem tactics
and secrets that you can INSTANTLY use to increase your
winnings.

Join now, and your first issue will include this free
report:

"Avoid These Costly Mistakes When Playing Texas Holdem"

Inside you'll learn the 10 most dangerous mistakes most
poker players make... and HOW YOU CAN AVOID THEM.

Just go here now to get started:

RoyRounder.com

Know EXACTLY What Your Opponents Are Holding

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***QUESTION FORM A READER***

Roy,

Your newsletters have greatly helped my play I used to be a
tight wad player. Now that I have changed gears (play more
aggressively) in my head its thrown players off balance a
lot. I take notes on my friends poker play so it helps me
remember betting patterns etc.

I am really good at sniffing out stone cold bluffs (I've
been known to call with queen high before) or strong hands
that are hard to recognize like small sets and low and
medium straights. I've even folded full houses before
knowing that other players have four of a kind by their
erratic breathing and confidence in their voice and shaky
hands.

However I need advanced improvement on reading tells and
avoiding traps. Other then the ones mentioned in Caro's book
of poker tells it is a little outdated. Especially I have
had also a problem with reading people when they play medium
strength hands aggressively - especially in casino
tournaments unlike my weekly poker games with my friends.

After a while you learn your friends play but in tournaments
they are all strangers how to get a read on them? Some
players bet medium strength (not weak strength hands)
aggressively. Does your e-book cover these questions?

Does it also have a section on poker tells as well. I've
played players giving off false tells as a trap such as
acting weak when weak and strong when strong? My friends do
this as well giving off false tells doing the opposite of
the opposite of what you would expect - we've read the same
books.

Thanks,
A.C.


***MY COMMENTS***

I want to start off by saying CONGRATULATIONS, my friend.

Calling bluffs with a queen high and laying down full boats
is a sign of a BALLSY player... That level of faith in your
abilities is a CRUCIAL step towards a successful poker
career.

I am also impressed by your choice to take notes on your
opponents. I notice that there are a lot of players who
CLAIM to want to be better, but don't take the TIME to do
what is needed.

As far as your question about reading poker tells against
players you aren't familiar with... here's what you can do:

When you are at a new table, it is obviously VERY important
that you pay close attention to the GAME and to the PLAYERS
right away.

Most players... when they sit down... get so caught up in
themselves and their own heads that they don't even make it
to this first step...

To put it bluntly:

"SIT DOWN, SHUT UP, and WATCH."

Don't start running your mouth... don't try to act cool...
and don't daydream. The first few minutes you're at the
table is perhaps the most IMPORTANT time there.

Once you've done this, be sure not to rush into any hands.
In fact, I recommend NOT getting involved in any hands at
the very beginning... and here's why:

If you're an experienced tournament player, you know that
most players are eliminated from tournaments when they are
in "shuffle times" (when they are moving from table to
table).

It is at these times when the BIGGEST MISTAKES are usually
made.

Let's say that you sit down a new table. You may have been
playing at a tight table where you could buy a lot of
pots...

You sit at this new table... and fall right back into your
betting pattern. You make a bold move, try to buy a pot, and
get burnt because THIS TABLE is much LOOSER than the last
one.

This puts you at a disadvantage right away... one which you
might not recover from.

When I move to a new table... or begin at a game where I
don't know the players... I always wait at least 3-4 rounds
of betting before I get involved in a hand... and a lot of
times I wait EVEN LONGER.

This gives me a chance to get to know my opponents... BEFORE
I risk any chips.

I call it my "Study Period."

Of course, the WHOLE GAME is a study period in itself... but
these first few hands is 100% devoted towards just watching
my poker opponents.

And here's the added benefit:

If I don't know my competition, THEY don't know ME, either.
By taking my time and doing my study period, I learn about
THEM... but they DON'T LEARN ABOUT ME.

If anything, they just ASSUME that I'm a tight player...

That means within 10 minutes, I immediately have an
advantage over all the other players at the table... even if
I haven't won a pot yet... or even played a hand.

OK, so when you do your study period, what should you look
for?

A lot of newbies think it's all in the face and in the
eyes... which is a mistake.

Most poker tells are the COMBINATION of an entire set of
movements and behavior...

On TV-- especially in movies-- poker tells are portrayed as
something as simple as the twitch of a nose or the movement
of a leg.

Kind of like in "Rounders," when Mike McDee figures out
Teddy KGB based on how he ate his cookies.

TAKE NOTE...

For the most part, this type of portrayal of poker tells is
a TOTAL MYTH.

If you think you can figure out a player's hand just based
on how he blinks, you're in for a rude awakening... and
you'll lose your chips fast.

In REAL LIFE (where you play), tells are more complex...

...VERY RARELY are they "cut and dry."

When you study your opponents... here are the things you
should think about:

1. Past Play

Think about how this player has acted in the past...

Is he usually strong or weak?

Aggressive or timid?

Smart or dumb?

And so on...

2. Timing

If your instinct tells you that a player deliberated for a
long time trying to make a choice, chances are that his hand
isn't too strong.

However, you should also note how long he has taken to play
in the past, to make sure that the move wasn't just a
regular timing move.

3. Posture

Especially with bad players, the posture of a player is a
key tell that will reveal a lot about a hand...

If the person leans back, that USUALLY represents strength.
If he leans forward, that USUALLY represents weakness.

Once again, poker tells aren't black and white. It's a gray
area, where everything needs to be considered together...

4. Bet Amount

If a player tends to make small bets, but then places an
unusually large bet, he could be holding a strong hand. Or
he may be trying to buy the pot.

Always watch for irregularities in betting patterns... most
amateurs don't mix up their bets enough, which gives you an
easy edge if you pay attention.

5. Pulse

This is one of the only "body tells" that I find works most
of the time. You can usually see the intensity of a player's
pulse by looking closely at his neck.

Often if a player gets "shaky," he usually has a great hand.
If the player is cool and collected, it's probably a fake.

6. Your Gut Feeling

Depending on your poker experience, your gut will often be
your best guide...

I've been playing poker for so long now that when I sit down
with newbies, I can usually read the players almost
INSTANTLY, without much thought.

It just comes naturally... and it will come naturally to
you, too... once you gain a lot of experience under your
belt... and once you spend enough time studying the game.

With the pros, of course, you've got to be much more
careful, because they DO know how to disguise their tells
and play their hands in an unpredictable manner.

So, to recap:

1. When you sit down to play at a table of strangers...
especially in a tournament... take your time before becoming
involved in a hand.

2. Go through a careful "Study Period." During this time,
SHUT UP and STUDY the players intensely.

3. When you start betting, watch for the six things we
discussed: past play, timing, posture, bet amount, pulse,
and your own gut instincts.

Finally... there's one more step to add...

And that is:

NEVER REVEAL THE WAY YOU THINK.

Here's what I mean...

Poker is truly a BATTLE of minds. The tells we've been
discussing are mostly simple REFLECTIONS of how a player is
thinking at the time of a bet.

For some reason, it's a natural tendency in all of us to
share our thoughts at the poker table... ESPECIALLY when we
aren't involved in hands.

This is more common during "home games" than in tournament
play or casinos...

For instance, let's say there's a heads up match between Don
and John after the river card.

Don goes all in...

The river was the third diamond on the board. John has trip
Aces.

(Of course, a flush would beat John's three of a kind.)

Anyway... John's has to decide whether Don is a on a
bluff... or if he caught the diamond flush.

THIS is where everyone starts screwing up:

Since Don is all in... and can't change his mind... John
shows his trip Aces to the other guys at the table who
aren't in the hand.

He says, "Man, I don't know whether to call. Don made a
pre-flop raise... I think he's just pot-committed and is
trying to buy it."

Someone else might chime in, "Yea, but he seems like he's
got the flush. Did you notice how he's been quiet the whole
hand?"

Someone else says, "C'mon wuss. Just call his bet and go
all-in... I'm getting tired and want to get going."

And so on...

Do you see where I'm going with this?

John should NEVER show his Aces to the other guys of
course... aside from being bad poker etiquette, now they
just saw an entire "free hand" and got to see how John acted
the whole way with his three of a kind.

The next guy just revealed that he's been watching how
SILENT Don has been... which clues everyone in on how this
guy thinks about tells. Now you know to be very conscious
about how much you talk around this player.

And the third guy reveals an attitude of carelessness...
which means as soon as I caught a good hand I'd try to get
in a heads-up match with him and go all in... because
there's a decent chance he'll call.

When you reveal your THINKING PROCESS, you're simply GIVING
AWAY tons of crucial information... FOR NO REASON.

The other players at the table with pick up a read on you
quickly... both consciously and subconsciously.

So don't do it.

Period.

As you know, Texas Holdem is filled with TONS of techniques
and strategies like these, that anyone can understand if
they just take the time to learn them.

Unlike popular belief, poker is NOT about having natural
talent.

It's about LEARNING-- through experience, analysis, and
expertise-- how to MASTER the game.

To develop YOUR poker genius, subscribe to my one-of-a-kind
poker strategy newsletter. You'll gain the exepertise you
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Your New Friend,

Roy Rounder

"How To Take Advantage Of Bad Players"

The increase of poker popularity has led to a flood of fish who are just WAITING for you to take their money.

Seriously.

These fish are untalented, undisciplined, and lack the fundamental skills to succeed in Texas Holdem. These players think that since they have seen a few episodes of the World Poker Tour, they are poker pros.
If you want to make money playing Texas Holdem, you need to learn to take all the money from these novices before they give it to someone else.
There are many ways that you can bankrupt the bad players at your table. These methods are tested and proven and can give you an advantage over everyone else at the table.
These methods include...

1. Fake Weakness
It seems that everyone over-estimates their own poker ability. Bad players usually think they are one of the best players at any given table.
This false sense of ability will lead bad players to attempt to buy virtually EVERY pot.
This over-aggression makes weak players especially vulnerable to check-raises and slow playing good cards. When you have the nuts, DON'T lead out with a big bet (like you should against a good player), instead slow play the hand and let the novice try to buy the pot.

2. Destroy Their Game Plan
Usually a novice's plan will depend on his ability to bluff effectively. If you are able to remove a significant section of their stack, you will destroy their game plan and put yourself on the fast track to the chip lead.

3. Show No Respect For Weak Bets
A bad player will fear losing all their chips on a mediocre hand. This means they will often make small bets on the turn and river. Show ZERO respect for these bets. Making a large raise over these weak bets will often scare away bad players leaving you with the pot.

4. Face Bad Players "Heads Up"
Since good players and bad players require different strategies, try to force other players out of hand before clashing with a weak player.
Eliminating other players will reduce the amount of possibilities you have to consider. This will allow you to focus more on how to scare away weak players.

5. Always Have A Decent Hand
Even if you play your hand flawlessly, a bad player may call all your bets with nothing but an Ace high.
This is very frustrating, but very common. In fact, I know many poker professionals who will not play against novices because they are so difficult to bluff.
So, before you enter into a high-cost hand with a bad player, make sure that you have at least a decent hand and you are confident that they don't have anything better.
These are just a few of the quick, more simple ways to take advantage of bad poker players...
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